While this process will copy over the raw database files you may run into trouble running the rsync process when MySQL is running.

If the rsync completed sucessfully there shouldn’t be a concern with anything else but you can use mysqldump to migrate your database manually.

I ended up getting this to work I had initially created the smallest $5 droplet. Everything seemed to copy over ok but I guess there weren’t enough resources. I updated to the next one up, rebooted and all worked like charm :-)

Full write up for 2021: https://quartarian.medium.com/digital-ocean-downsizing-a-ubuntu-droplet-15ecb579d11d